Māori Population Estimates (2013-base)

Component Methodology

All estimates of population undertaken by Statistics New Zealand use the component methodology, where the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) are used to update a base population or a previous estimate of population.

Censuses of Population and Dwellings provide the starting point for deriving population estimates. Estimates are labelled 'provisional' if they are based on incomplete data. 'Final' estimates are based on complete data (i.e. when all data required by the estimation methodology is available).

The estimated resident population of the Māori ethnic group is based on the census usually resident population count of the Māori ethnic group. We adjust the count for Māori residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census undercount), for Māori residents temporarily overseas on census night, and for non-response to the census ethnicity question.

We obtained Māori population estimates from 30 June 2013 onwards by updating the base population of the Māori ethnic group (at 30 June 2013) for births, deaths, estimated net migration, and estimated interethnic mobility during the ensuing period.

Māori population estimates from 30 June 2013 assume net migration flows as a proportion of 20 percent of the net permanent and long-term migration of New Zealand citizens to Australia, with adjustments for interethnic mobility and Māori migrating to/from countries other than Australia. The assumed net migration flows are based on data obtained from censuses in other countries including Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America.

Population estimates for the Māori ethnic group from 30 June 2001 to 30 June 2006 were revised using results from the 2001 and 2006 Censuses. Over this period, we assumed there was an annual population loss of 3,150 due to the combined effect of migration and interethnic mobility.

We produced estimates from 30 June 1991 to 30 June 2001 by updating the 2001 base for natural increase (births minus deaths) and assuming annual population loss of 800 over the period of 1991–2001, due to the combined effect of migration (no external migration information available for the Māori ethnic group) and interethnic mobility (change of ethnic identity). The net annual outflows assumed over the period 1991–2001 followed the pattern of arrival of Māori in Australia, as measured by Australia's 2001 Census.

We have not reconciled the population estimates of the Māori ethnic group for 1996 with the Māori population counted by the 1996 Census because of different ethnic questions asked in the 1996 and 2001 Censuses. The estimates of the Māori population at 30 June 1996 therefore differ from the estimates provided in the population base tables, which are based on results from the 1996 Census.

From 1 September 1995, new ethnicity questions were introduced to the birth and death registration forms. Māori ethnic group births and deaths for the December quarter 1995 onwards are based on births and deaths data compiled using the new questions.

At national level only