Project
Demographic Projections
en-NZDemographic projections provide an indication of future trends in the size and composition of the population, labour force, families and households. The projections are used for community, business and government planning and policy-making in areas such as health, education, superannuation and transport. The projections are typically updated every two to three years.
National Projections
Projections are produced at the national level (New Zealand) for the population (total, Māori, Pacific, Asian, and European ethnic groups), families, households and labour force.
Subnational Projections
Projections are produced at the subnational level (regional council areas, city and district council areas) for the population (total, Māori ethnicity, Pacific ethnicity, Asian ethnicity, European ethnicity), families and households. The projections of the total population are also available for area units ('suburbs'), statistical area 2, urban areas and zones. The ethnic population projections are produced for most regions and some territorial authority areas depending on the size of the respective ethnic base population.
Stats NZ adopts a 'top-down' approach to demographic projections. This means that projections are first completed at the national level. These subsequently serve as a constraint for projections for territorial authority areas. In turn, territorial authority projections serve as a constraint for projections for smaller areas (eg area units). The advantages of this top-down approach include quicker release of projections for larger areas and avoidance of implausible projections for larger areas.
Alternative Series
A number of alternative series are produced for each set of projections using different combinations of appropriate assumptions about future fertility, mortality, migration, inter-ethnic mobility, living arrangement type and labour force participation patterns of the population.
Ad hoc and Customised Projections
Special projections can be produced for clients using their own assumptions. For more information and quotes, email info@stats.govt.nz or telephone 0508 525 525 toll free.
For customised projections, Stats NZ takes responsibility for the method employed but the assumptions used are the final responsibility of the client and the projections are not official Stats NZ population statistics.
Different Population Measures
There are two main population concepts of interest:
- all the people present in a given area at a given time (the 'de facto population concept')
- all the people who usually live in a given area at a given time (the 'resident population concept').
Both of these populations can be counted or estimated.
Population statistics – user guide provides an overview of the different population statistics produced by Stats NZ, including census counts, population estimates, and population projections.
en-NZStats NZ
en-NZ