Māori Population Estimates
Māori Population Estimates
Ethnic Group Population Estimates, Maori Population Estimates
Māori population estimates are obtained by updating the base population of the Māori ethnic group for births, deaths, estimated net migration, and estimated inter-ethnic mobility during the ensuing period.
The estimated resident population of the Māori ethnic group is based on the census usually resident population count of the Māori ethnic group with adjustments for Māori residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census undercount), for Māori residents temporarily overseas on census night and for non-response to the census ethnicity question.
Māori population estimates (total, or subgroups defined by age and sex) are used for many purposes in all areas of society and the economy; including planning, policy formation, making business decisions and monitoring change in health and education.
They are also widely used in analysing changes in the demographic, economic and social structure of New Zealand, eg in the calculation of mortality rates, participation rates in education, per capita consumption of goods within New Zealand, electoral enrolment rates, and crime rates, etc.
The definition of Māori used for population estimates has changed over the years.
Māori population estimates were based on people with half or more Māori blood.
The term 'sole Māori' was used between the 1986 Census and the 1991 Census to describe those census respondents who stated New Zealand Māori as their sole ethnic group. These estimates were of the de facto population.
Māori births and deaths (defined as being with half or more of Māori blood) were used to update the base population at census. Māori net migration was assumed to follow the same pattern as applied over the period 1982–1986 (ethnicity information was not collected on external migration cards after 1986).
Māori population estimates refer to people belonging to the Māori ethnic group.
These estimates are based on the census usually resident population counts of the Māori ethnic group at the 2001, 2006, and 2018 Censuses, updated for:
- net census undercount
- the number of residents temporarily overseas on census night,
- births, deaths and net migration (excess of arrivals over departures) between census night and 30 June,
- reconciliation with demographic estimates at the youngest ages
- non-response to the census ethnicity question.
Changes to the ethnic question on the birth and death registration forms means that the ethnic classification is not by degree of blood, but rather, self-identification. This also means that a greater range of ethnic groups can be identified and multi-ethnic responses can be generated. See Births and Deaths Profiles.
The ethnic question in the 2001 Census of Population and Dwellings changed from that asked in 1996. (The 2001 question was very similar to that asked in 1991.) As a result, the ethnic data from the 2001 Census is not comparable with that from the 1996 Census.
This change means that 1996-base population estimates for the Māori ethnic group are not comparable with the 2001-base population estimates. Consequently, estimates for the Māori ethnic group were revised back to 1991, using results from the 2001 Census.
The base populations for the Māori, Pacific, Asian, and European ethnic groups, at 30 June 2001 incorporate an adjustment for those people not specifying their ethnicity. This is the first time the base estimated resident populations have included such an adjustment.
A revision of the estimated resident populations for the period 1991-2001 was carried out in September 2002.
The revision was necessary for two reasons.
Firstly, the 2001 Census and the 2001 Post-enumeration Survey (PES) allowed a new base population for population estimates to be defined at 30 June 2001.
Secondly, a revision of population estimates based on the 1996 Census was necessary, as analysis of the 2001 PES results led to revised estimates of undercoverage in the 1996 Census, from 1.2% to 1.6% in total.
About 16,000 residents were added to the 1996-base population because of the revised undercoverage estimates. Population estimates for the period 1991-1996 use the revised 1996-base population.
The estimated resident population of Maori ethnic group at 30 June 2013 (2013-base ERP of Maori) is based on the 2013 census usually resident population counts updated for:
non-response to the census ethnicity question
net census undercount(as measured by the 2013 post-enumeration survey)
residents temporarily overseas on census night
births, deaths, and net migration between census night and 30 June
reconciliation with demographic estimates at the youngest ages.
The Māori population estimates between 30 June 2006 and 30 June 2013 have been revised to incorporate the 2013 census results, hence the 2013-base ERP of Maori. The revised estimates for 2006-13 supersede previously published estimates.
The Māori population estimates between 30 June 2006 and 30 June 2018 have been revised to incorporate the 2018 census results. This is a longer revision period than the usual five-year period between each census due to the 2013 estimates now being deemed too low.
A methodological change has also been made to the international migration component of population change. This has been updated to use the more accurate outcomes-based migration measure and ethnicity for migrants derived from linked administrative sources.
See Māori ethnic group population estimates 2006–18: Methods and results paper for more detail.
Statistics New Zealand, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Health, Government Planners/Local Body Planners, Researchers
All estimates for the Māori ethnic group are supplied only as a guide for research and other analytical purposes.
Estimated resident populations (total, Māori ethnic group, or subgroups defined by age and sex) aid the decisions of government, business and community organisations.
They are also widely used in analysing changes in the demographic, economic and social structure of New Zealand, eg in the calculation of mortality rates, participation rates in education, per capita consumption of goods within New Zealand, etc.
For the calculation of rates when the numerators relate to data covering calendar years, mean year ended 31 December population estimates are appropriate as denominators.
For analysing data collected over a short time period (eg a month), estimates of the population at the end of the closest quarter are appropriate as the denominator.
The accuracy of the estimates depends on the accuracy of the estimated base and estimated change in numbers. The accuracy of the base depends on the accuracy of the census and the estimated adjustments made to the base.
The estimated change in numbers is based on the births and deaths registrations figures, and the external migration figures.
Limitations are inherent in the data used to derive Māori population estimates for 1991 onwards. All estimates for the Māori ethnic group are supplied only as a guide for research and other analytical purposes.
Māori Population Estimates
Māori ethnic group population estimates 2006–18: Methods and results
Māori Population Estimates
All estimates of population undertaken by Stats NZ use the component methodology, where the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) are used to update a base population or a previous estimate of population.
Censuses of Population and Dwellings provide the starting point for deriving population estimates. Estimates are labelled 'provisional' if they are based on incomplete data. 'Final' estimates are based on complete data (i.e. when all data required by the estimation methodology is available).
The estimated resident population of the Māori ethnic group is based on the census usually resident population count of the Māori ethnic group. We adjust the count for Māori residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census undercount), for Māori residents temporarily overseas on census night, and for non-response to the census ethnicity question.
We obtained Māori population estimates from 30 June each census year onwards by updating the base population of the Māori ethnic group (eg, 30 June 2018) for births, deaths, estimated net migration, and estimated interethnic mobility during the ensuing period.
Estimates of Māori international migration have been updated to use the more accurate outcomes-based migration measure (Outcomes versus intentions: Measuring migration based on travel histories) and ethnicity for migrants derived from other government data (linked administrative sources).
Previously, Māori population estimates from 30 June 2013 to 30 June 2018 assume net migration flows as a proportion of 20 percent of the net permanent and long-term migration of New Zealand citizens to Australia, with adjustments for interethnic mobility and Māori migrating to/from countries other than Australia. The assumed net migration flows are based on data obtained from censuses in other countries including Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America.
Population estimates for the Māori ethnic group from 30 June 2001 to 30 June 2006 were revised using results from the 2001 and 2006 Censuses. Over this period, we assumed there was an annual population loss of 3,150 due to the combined effect of migration and interethnic mobility.
We produced estimates from 30 June 1991 to 30 June 2001 by updating the 2001 base for natural increase (births minus deaths) and assuming annual population loss of 800 over the period of 1991–2001, due to the combined effect of migration (no external migration information available for the Māori ethnic group) and interethnic mobility (change of ethnic identity). The net annual outflows assumed over the period 1991–2001 followed the pattern of arrival of Māori in Australia, as measured by Australia's 2001 Census.
We have not reconciled the population estimates of the Māori ethnic group for 1996 with the Māori population counted by the 1996 Census because of different ethnic questions asked in the 1996 and 2001 Censuses. The estimates of the Māori population at 30 June 1996 therefore differ from the estimates provided in the population base tables, which are based on results from the 1996 Census.
From 1 September 1995, new ethnicity questions were introduced to the birth and death registration forms. Māori ethnic group births and deaths for the December quarter 1995 onwards are based on births and deaths data compiled using the new questions.
At national level only