National Family and Household Projections
National Family and Household Projections
Stats NZ: Population Insights
National Family and Household Projections provide projected number of families and households for New Zealand, by family type and household type, based on different combinations of fertility, mortality, migration, and living arrangement assumptions. The family and household projections are derived from projections of the New Zealand population, by multiplying the population by assumed living arrangement type rates for each age-sex group. The projections of population by living arrangement type are subsequently aggregated to give projections of families (by broad family type) and households (by broad household type).
Demographic projections provide an indication of future trends in the size and composition of the population, labour force, families and households. The projections are used for community, business and government planning and policy-making in areas such as health, education, superannuation and transport. The projections are typically updated every two to three years.
Family and household projections provide an indication of future trends in the number and composition of families and households. The projections are used by community groups, businesses and government agencies, in planning and policy-making. The projections provide information on the changing characteristics of families and households, which are used to develop social policies in areas such as health, housing and education. For example, the ageing population and increasing single person households projections can help identify likely future service needs.
The projections are neither predictions nor forecasts. They provide an indication of possible future changes in the size and composition of families and households. While the projection assumptions are formulated from an assessment of short-term and long-term demographic trends, there is no certainty that any of the assumptions will be realised.
Population concept for all demographic estimates, projections and indices changed from 'de facto' to 'resident'. Population estimates based on the de facto population concept (the estimated de facto population) include visitors from overseas, but made no adjustments for net census undercount or residents temporarily overseas. Population estimates based on the resident population concept (the estimated resident population) include adjustments for net census undercount and residents temporarily overseas, but exclude overseas visitors. The reference date for projections is shifted from 31 March to 30 June.
A new 'propensity' method used to produce national family and household projections, superseding the 1996-base national household projections which used a 'household head' method. The new series include, for the first time, projections of families by broad family type and projections of broad household types.
A new 'sequential propensity' method and a modelled approach to derive national family and household projections based on 2001–2018 Census data, superseding the 2013-base 'propensity method'. The new method enables delivery of national and subnational (regions, territorial authority and Auckland local boards) family and household projections at the same time.
Nature of Projections
These projections are not predictions. The projections should be used as an indication of the overall trend, rather than as exact forecasts. The projections are updated every 2–3 years to maintain their relevance and usefulness, by incorporating new information about demographic trends and developments in methods.
The projections are designed to meet both short-term and long-term planning needs, but are not designed to be exact forecasts or to project specific annual variation. These projections are based on assumptions made about future fertility, mortality, and migration patterns of the population. While the assumptions are formulated from an assessment of short-term and long-term demographic trends, there is no certainty that any of the assumptions will be realised.
The projections do not take into account non-demographic factors (eg war, catastrophes, major government and business decisions) which may invalidate the projections.
Stats NZ, Ministry of Health, Government Planners/Local Body Planners, Ministry of Education, Consultants, Private Businesses.