Demographic Projections


Demographic projections provide an indication of future trends in the size and composition of the population, labour force, families and households. The projections are used for community, business and government planning and policy-making in areas such as health, education, superannuation and transport. The projections are typically updated every two to three years.

National Projections

Projections are produced at the national level (New Zealand) for the population (total, Māori, Pacific, Asian, and European ethnic groups), families, households and labour force.

Subnational Projections

Projections are produced at the subnational level (regional council areas, city and district council areas) for the population (total, Māori ethnicity, Pacific ethnicity, Asian ethnicity, European ethnicity), families and households. The projections of the total population are also available for area units ('suburbs'), urban areas and zones. The ethnic population projections are produced for most regions and some territorial authority areas depending on the size of the respective ethnic base population.

Statistics New Zealand adopts a 'top-down' approach to demographic projections. This means that projections are first completed at the national level. These subsequently serve as a constraint for projections for territorial authority areas. In turn, territorial authority projections serve as a constraint for projections for smaller areas (eg area units). The advantages of this top-down approach include quicker release of projections for larger areas and avoidance of implausible projections for larger areas.

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