Māori Population Estimates

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Abstract

Māori population estimates are obtained by updating the base population of the Māori ethnic group for births, deaths, estimated net migration, and estimated inter-ethnic mobility during the ensuing period.

The estimated resident population of the Māori ethnic group is based on the census usually resident population count of the Māori ethnic group with adjustments for Māori residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census undercount), for Māori residents temporarily overseas on census night and for non-response to the census ethnicity question.

Purpose

Māori populations (total, or subgroups defined by age and sex) are used for many purposes in all areas of society and the economy; including planning, policy formation, making business decisions and monitoring change in health and education.

They are also widely used in analysing changes in the demographic, economic and social structure of New Zealand, eg in the calculation of mortality rates, participation rates in education, per capita consumption of goods within New Zealand, electoral enrolment rates, and crime rates, etc.

Citation Information

Title

Māori Population Estimates

SubTitle

Māori Estimates

Alternate Title

Ethnic Group Population Estimates, Maori Population Estimates

Publisher

Statistics New Zealand

Rights

Statistics New Zealand

Subject

Maori, Population

Series Information

Series Name

Māori Population Estimates

Description

The estimated resident population of the Māori ethnic group is based on the census usually resident population count of the Māori ethnic group with adjustments for Māori residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census undercount), for Māori residents temporarily overseas on census night and for non-response to the census ethnicity question.

Coverage Information

Temporal Coverage

  • 1991 to present

Topical Coverage

  • Ethnic Population
  • Māori Population
  • Maori
  • Māori
  • Population
  • Estimates
  • Births
  • Deaths
  • Migration
  • Ethnic
  • Maori

publication

Significant events impacting this study series

The definition of Māori used for population estimates has changed over the years.

Before 1986

Māori population estimates were based on people with half or more Māori blood.

1986-1991

The term 'sole Māori' was used between the 1986 Census and the 1991 Census to describe those census respondents who stated New Zealand Māori as their sole ethnic group. These estimates were of the de facto population.

Māori births and deaths (defined as being with half or more of Māori blood) were used to update the base population at census. Māori net migration was assumed to follow the same pattern as applied over the period 1982–1986 (ethnicity information was not collected on external migration cards after 1986).

1991 Onwards

Māori population estimates refer to people belonging to the Māori ethnic group.

These estimates are based on the census usually resident population counts of the Māori ethnic group at the 2001 and 2006 Censuses, updated for:

  • net census undercount
  • the number of residents temporarily overseas on census night,
  • births, deaths and net migration (excess of arrivals over departures) between census night and 30 June,
  • reconciliation with demographic estimates at the youngest ages
  • non-response to the census ethnicity question.

Sept 1995

Changes to the ethnic question on the birth and death registration forms means that the ethnic classification is not by degree of blood, but rather, self-identification. This also means that a greater range of ethnic groups can be identified and multi-ethnic responses can be generated. See Births and Deaths Profiles.

2001

The ethnic question in the 2001 Census of Population and Dwellings changed from that asked in 1996. (The 2001 question was very similar to that asked in 1991.) As a result, the ethnic data from the 2001 Census is not comparable with that from the 1996 Census.

This change means that 1996-base population estimates for the Māori ethnic group are not comparable with the 2001-base population estimates. Consequently, estimates for the Māori ethnic group were revised back to 1991, using results from the 2001 Census.

2002

The base populations for the Māori, Pacific, Asian, and European ethnic groups, at 30 June 2001 incorporate an adjustment for those people not specifying their ethnicity. This is the first time the base estimated resident populations have included such an adjustment.

A revision of the estimated resident populations for the period 1991-2001 was carried out in September 2002.

The revision was necessary for two reasons.

Firstly, the 2001 Census and the 2001 Post-enumeration Survey (PES) allowed a new base population for population estimates to be defined at 30 June 2001.

Secondly, a revision of population estimates based on the 1996 Census was necessary, as analysis of the 2001 PES results led to revised estimates of undercoverage in the 1996 Census, from 1.2% to 1.6% in total.

About 16,000 residents were added to the 1996-base population because of the revised undercoverage estimates. Population estimates for the period 1991-1996 use the revised 1996-base population.

2014

Revised the annual Māori population estimates between 30 June 2006 and 30 June 2013 following the results from the 2013 Census and derivation of the 2013-base estimated resident population of the Maori ethnic group. The revised estimates for 2006-13 supersede previously published estimates.

Main users of the data

Statistics New Zealand, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Health, Government Planners/Local Body Planners, Researchers

Usage and limitations of the data

Usage

All estimates for the Māori ethnic group are supplied only as a guide for research and other analytical purposes.

Estimated resident populations (total, Māori ethnic group, or subgroups defined by age and sex) aid the decisions of government, business and community organisations.

They are also widely used in analysing changes in the demographic, economic and social structure of New Zealand, eg in the calculation of mortality rates, participation rates in education, per capita consumption of goods within New Zealand, etc.

For the calculation of rates when the numerators relate to data covering calendar years, mean year ended 31 December population estimates are appropriate as denominators.

For analysing data collected over a short time period (eg a month), estimates of the population at the end of the closest quarter are appropriate as the denominator.

Limitations

The accuracy of the estimates depends on the accuracy of the estimated base and estimated change in numbers. The accuracy of the base depends on the accuracy of the census and the estimated adjustments made to the base.

The estimated change in numbers is based on the births and deaths registrations figures, and the external migration figures. We estimated external migration using census data from Australia and other countries, as no external migration nor interethnic mobility data is available.

Limitations are inherent in the data used to derive Māori population estimates for 1991–2014. All estimates for the Māori ethnic group are supplied only as a guide for research and other analytical purposes.

Frequency

11 Other

Revision Information

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DDI Id
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DDI Version
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